Oldham's Matt Smith scores against Liverpool in the FA Cup. (Photo: Action Images)
Who says romance is dead? This morning, our papers are rejoicing in the resurrection of football's premier domestic cup competition.
The FA Cup is traditionally the moment when David gets to whip out his slingshot and fell the Premier League Goliath, although it's usually a former postman called Mike from Milton Keynes who actually does the deed. But this weekend David didn't turn up with a slingshot, he arrived carrying an Uzi. MK Dons – doing their very own Lazarus impression – destroyed QPR 4-2. Oldham outplayed and humiliated my very own Liverpool 3-2. Leeds pushed Neil Warnock a step closer towards his long-standing appointment with the men in white coats, dumping out Spurs 2-1. And Eric Morecambe is still doing a heavenly jig after Luton overcome Norwich 1-0, the first non-League side ever to beat a team from the Premier League.
Elsewhere Arsenal scraped through 3-2 against Brighton, and Brentford were only a streetwise ballboy away from beating Chelsea, until Fernando Torres popped up with a late equaliser. Though to be fair, Torres's goal must itself be in the running for shock of the round.
So I say again, who dares now question the romance of the FA Cup? Well, me actually.
I think the magic of the FA Cup has long gone, and I think this weekend's results prove it. For those on the receiving end, one big upset is unfortunate. Two looks like carelessness. Four in one round is the equivalent of the Premier League sides putting Lady Bracknell in goal and sticking two fingers up at the whole competition.
Liverpool didn't actually put Lady Bracknell between the sticks, but we might just as well have done given the way stand-in keeper Brad Jones gifted Oldham their second goal. This is how the Guardian described our starting 11: "The Liverpool manager selected a strong, recognisable line-up despite having trips to Arsenal and Manchester City in the next week, with only Steven Gerrard, Stewart Downing and Lucas Leiva of his available first choices rested on the bench". Note, "only" three first choice, players not selected; and not "the strongest side available" but "strong and recognisable". And even that's questionable. If Andre Wisdom, Sebastian Coates and Jack Robinson are recognisable beyond their own dining tables, then I'm Roger Hunt. And to be honest, Sir Roger could have defended better than Coates and Robinson, and he's 74.
The FA cup used to feature starry-eyed footballing journeymen coming up against battle-hardened professionals. And to an extent it still does, except these days it's the overawed youngsters wearing the Premier League shirts. "I was bitterly disappointed with the young players as they had a chance to compete for a club that has to challenge for trophies," said Brendan Rodgers, after his defeat at the hands of Paul Dickov. Which raises the question: if challenging for trophies like the FA Cup is so important, what were those young players doing on the pitch in the first place? And what did their presence on the pitch signal to the rest of the first team regulars about the importance of the fixture?
The fact is that Premier League survival and Champions League football are far more important to most owners, managers and – yes – fans than a good FA Cup run. And I'm perfectly prepared to hold my own hand up here: if you offered me the choice, I'd rather finish fourth in the table then see Liverpool walking out at Wembley come May. Or June, or December, or whenever the Football Association have scheduled this year's final for.
Yesterday I had a bit of a debate on Twitter about the relative lack of importance of the modern FA Cup to Premier League teams. And to prove my point, this morning I decided to come over all John Motson. If you take the two FA Cup finalists over the past 10 years, look at their Football League position at the end of that season, and then compare that with the preceding decade, than a clear picture emerges.
So, since 2002, the combined average league position of the two finalists is 16th (16.2 to be precise). In the 10 years before that, the average was 12.9. And it's not hard to see why, given that over last decade, Millwall (30th) and Cardiff City (32nd) and who were both Championship sides, appeared in the final, as did Portsmouth (20th), who were relegated the same season they appeared. In contrast, between 1992 and 2002, no teams from outside the top flight appeared, and the lowest placed finalist was Middlesbrough, (who finished 19th, and were also relegated).
If you look at the average League position of the winners, a slightly different picture emerges, though it still supports the analysis. Over the past 10 years, the average league placing of the FA Cup winner has been around third in the Premier League (3.2 if you want to be pedantic). This compares with 4.4 in the decade before. Some people might say "Ah, that proves the big clubs are still taking the FA Cup seriously." But to me, what it shows is a big club who still plays their second 11 now has a better chance of winning because, basically, they're not going to face much competition. And most of the top Premier League reserve sides can beat the starting line-up of anyone below them anyway.
And this point is proved when you look at the third statistic, which is the average position of the beaten finalist. Over the last 10 years the beaten finalist has an average league position of 13. That compares to an average of 8.5 in the previous decade. In other words, it's now much easier for lower ranked teams to make the final.
That's also why the FA Cup final itself now produces very few shocks. Over the past 11 finals, the team with the highest league position has gone on to win the trophy. The last time that was reversed was in 2001, when Liverpool (3rd) beat Arsenal (2nd), thanks to two brilliant goals from Michael Owen, and a couple of even more brilliant handballs from Stephan Henchoz.
So this is the reality of the FA Cup. Most big teams aren't really bothering with it, so those that do, or have really strong second-string line-ups, have a better chance of winning it. Meanwhile, the smaller teams have a much better chance of making the final, but when they do, they lose.
Who says romance is dead? Me. And Paul Dickov.
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